Market Mosaic · Tools The data-backed edge
Free decision tool

The Cost
of Being
Wrong

Every plan leans on one big assumption. This tool puts a dollar figure on what happens if yours doesn't hold — itemized, line by line, from your own numbers.

60 seconds · free · your numbers never leave your browser

Your numbers, your math

Nothing is invented and nothing is hidden. Every line of the receipt shows exactly how it was calculated from what you typed — and there's a plain-words breakdown under it.

Built for the meeting

Walk in with a figure instead of a feeling. Copy the breakdown straight into Slack, a memo, or the deck — the number does the arguing.

By Market Mosaic

From the team behind the data-backed edge, read every Tuesday by global decision makers.

1State the assumption 2Add the numbers 3Get the bill
Market Mosaic · Tools The Cost of Being Wrong
1Assumption
2Numbers
3Confidence

What are you assuming?

The one belief your decision leans on — write it the way you'd say it in a meeting, or tap an example to try the tool.

Give it a full sentence — the receipt prints your words.

Just exploring? Tap one:

Market Mosaic · Tools The Cost of Being Wrong
Assumption
2Numbers
3Confidence

The decision riding on it

Four numbers. Rough is fine — the receipt shows every step of the math.

What you're spending if you go ahead
$
What the decision should bring in
$
The share of that revenue you keep
%
How long before reality corrects you
mo

Add at least the budget — there's nothing to price yet.

Market Mosaic · Tools The Cost of Being Wrong
Assumption
Numbers
3Confidence

How sure are you?

Your honest confidence that the assumption holds — and what that confidence is built on.

70%
50% — a coin flip95% — verified

Is the evidence behind it under 12 months old?

Is any of it first-party — your own customers, your own data?

Has it been tested against a source that disagrees?

Reading your decision
Weighing the blind window
Itemizing the exposure
Market Mosaic · Tools The Cost of Being Wrong

$0

Expected cost of being wrong

The receipt
Chance the assumption is wrong30%
Budget exposed to that chance$0
Margin planned in the blind window$0
…exposed to the same chance$0
Expected exposure$0

Same decision, same numbers, assumption verified to 95%:

Exposure when verified$0
What verification is worth$0
How we got this number

Unlock the full receipt

That email doesn't look right — try again.

The receipt rides with the free weekly edge — tick the box to unlock.

The screenshot is yours — the number does the talking.

That was one assumption

Members price them all

Coming first to members

The Verify button. One click runs this exact assumption against published data and returns the evidence for and against — sourced, dated, linked. You've seen what that's worth here: $0. Members get it the day it ships.

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Or go Premium at $12/month: everything in Plus, monthly Executive Playbooks, free quarterly Insights Reports ($99 value each), and chat with Market Mosaic — an AI trained on all 203 issues we've ever published.

All math runs in your browser on the numbers you enter. Nothing is invented.

A Market Mosaic tool · The data-backed edge for global decision makers

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